After defeating the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night time, the Los Angeles Lakers journey to tackle the San Antonio Spurs in a recreation with two groups taking part in for a potential play-in event spot.
What instantly stands out is that each of those groups haven’t performed a lot protection because the All-Star break, with the Spurs rating twenty seventh in Defensive Rating (119.8) and the Lakers rating twenty third (117.7) over the past two weeks.
The Spurs have additionally been pushing the tempo just lately, taking part in the second-most possessions within the league because the break (103.3). They’re additionally second in offensive size of possession at 14 seconds.
Nonetheless, it’s no shock that is a workforce that has gone over in 4 out of its previous six video games, and we’re seeing oddsmakers open sky excessive totals for its video games. Although the Spurs received’t be mistaken for a top-tier offense, the tempo of their video games means we’re prone to see high-scoring affairs.
Since the break, they’ve scored 157, 129, 105, 112 and 117 with their lowest scoring outburst coming towards the Memphis Grizzlies, who’re eighth in Defensive Rating this season.
The Lakers are removed from the Grizzlies defensively.
The Lakers have gone over the whole of their final two video games, and a massive a part of that’s their lineups with LeBron James at middle. In Saturday night time’s 124-116 win towards the Warriors, James scored 56 factors, and the Lakers as a entire made 18-of-41 3s and scored 1.2 factors per possession.
I imagine the Lakers have discovered a gear offensively, which they will use all through the remainder of the season. However, with James at middle, we aren’t prone to see a ton of rim safety. The Lakers are simply twenty second in opponent discipline purpose proportion on the rim (66.2 p.c) and battle in each half-court and transition protection.
In three Spurs-Lakers video games this season we acquired scores of 121-125, 106-114 and 138-110. The outlier — a 220-point efficiency — got here in a recreation with simply 96 possessions and James within the lineup.
The different two matchups we noticed video games with possessions of 103 and 105.
Overall, I’m anticipating a fast-paced recreation between two groups that battle to defend. With my mannequin making this recreation 238 and oddsmakers opening this whole at 234, I’ll play the over on this spot.
The play: Over 232.5