This weekly column on the subsequent race for the White House often zeroes in on the burgeoning contest for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.

But a ballot launched in current days that spotlighted President Biden’s flagging help ought to he run for reelection in 2024 in New Hampshire, the state that for a century’s held the primary major within the presidential nominating calendar, piqued our curiosity.

Thirty-seven p.c of possible Democratic major voters in 2024 questioned within the University of New Hampshire’s (UNH) newest Granite State survey stated that they’d vote for Biden if the first had been held right this moment, a drop of 12 factors from UNH’s earlier ballot in July. Fifty-two p.c of these questioned stated they had been uncertain, up 9 factors, with 11% saying they’d vote for one more candidate.


Asked in the event that they’d wish to see the president run unopposed in 2024 or face a major problem, 45% stated they’d wish to see Biden face a major challenger, up 16 factors from July. Those preferring the president to run unopposed within the subsequent Democratic presidential major dropped 9 factors from July, to 29% within the newest survey, which was carried out Oct. 14-18.

Then-former Vice President Joe Biden campaigns in front of the New Hampshire State House on Nov. 8, 2019, in Concord, N.H.

Then-former Vice President Joe Biden campaigns in entrance of the New Hampshire State House on Nov. 8, 2019, in Concord, N.H.
(Fox News)

The newest numbers from the first-in-the-nation presidential major state come as Biden’s approval scores have taken a beating the previous two and a half months, within the wake of Biden’s much-criticized dealing with of the turbulent U.S. exit from Afghanistan and following a surge in COVID-19 instances because of the unfold of the extremely infectious delta variant because the nation continues to fight the coronavirus, the worst pandemic to strike the globe in a century. The president’s deteriorating numbers had been additionally compounded by the most recent surge of migrants making an attempt to cross into the U.S. alongside the southern border with Mexico, in addition to an increase in inflation.

There’s been intense hypothesis – relationship again to the launch of his profitable 2020 White House bid two and a half years in the past – whether or not the now-78-year-old Biden (the president turns 79 subsequent month) would run for a second time period. Biden made historical past final November when he grew to become the oldest particular person ever elected president. If he campaigns for reelection in 2024 and wins, Biden can be 82 at his second inaugural and 86 on the finish of his second time period.

Asked in March on the first formal information convention of his presidency about his 2024 plans, Biden stated, “My answer is yes. I plan on running for reelection. That’s my expectation.”


As we all the time warning, take these very early polls within the subsequent White House race with loads of skepticism. 

Also do not forget that whereas Biden received New Hampshire – a key normal election battleground state – over then President Donald Trump by seven factors final November, 9 months earlier he got here in a really disappointing fifth within the state’s presidential major. And remember the fact that there’s a rising push inside the Democratic occasion to upend the present presidential nominating calendar, which threatens New Hampshire’s cherished place because the lead off major.

Most in GOP nonetheless need Trump to run once more

A majority of Americans questioned within the newest Quinnipiac University nationwide ballot say they don’t wish to see former President Trump run for the White House once more in 2024, however the overwhelming majority of Republicans welcome one other Trump marketing campaign.

By a 58%-35% margin, Americans gave a thumbs down to a different Trump presidential bid, in line with the Quinnipiac survey, which was carried out Oct. 15-18. Democrats, as anticipated, had been overwhelmingly opposed to a different Trump run, with Independents opposed by the identical 58%-35% margin seen within the total response.

But 78% of Republicans questioned within the ballot stated they’d wish to see the previous president make one other run for the White House, with 16% opposed.

Nine months faraway from the White House, the 75-year previous Trump stays extremely common with Republican voters, as he continues to carry a lot sway over the occasion. Trump stays a GOP kingmaker and repeatedly flirts with a 2024 run whereas he retains making unfounded claims that the 2020 presidential election was “rigged” and “stolen.”

Is DeSantis extra common than Trump amongst NH Republicans?

While the overwhelming majority of Republicans say they’d wish to see Trump run once more, his help stays excessive – however drops – in 2024 GOP nomination horse race questions.


Trump grabs 56% help within the UNH ballot, once they ask an opened-ended query about whom self-declared Republicans would help within the 2024 New Hampshire major, which is 2 years and 1 / 4 years away. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was a distant second, at 13%, with everybody else within the single digits.

When supplied an inventory of potential GOP 2024 contenders, 43% of possible Republican presidential major voters stated they’d vote for Trump, with DeSantis at 18% and everybody else in single digits.

DeSantis, whose standing amongst conservatives has skyrocketed over the previous 12 months and a half thanks largely to his combative push again towards COVID-19 restrictions amid the pandemic, holds a slight edge over Trump in favorability amongst Republican voters.

The Florida governor scored a internet favorability score of plus 62 within the UNH ballot, with the previous president at plus 54.

Duncan argues ‘Trump fever is going to break’

Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan says he’s getting “very little push back” from fellow Republicans over his burgeoning effort to reboot what he hopes will likely be a post-Trump GOP.

Duncan spotlights that different Republicans have quietly come as much as him and thanked him for “doing the right thing” and inform him “this means a lot for this country, this means a lot for this party.”


Georgia’s lieutenant governor made his feedback in a nationwide unique interview with Fox News and through an deal with to an viewers on the New Hampshire Institute of Politics on Tuesday, the place Duncan kicked off the inaugural occasion to promote “GOP 2.0,” the thought behind his new ebook and his evolving push to repair a Republican Party that he says has been broken by former President Trump.

“It’s a better pathway forward for our conservative party,” Duncan emphasised. “If done right, GOP 2.0 is going to be a safe place to call home for commonsense conservatives. It’s going to allow us to win on the policy front, but it’s also going to allow us to win on the ballot boxes.”

“The reality is that Donald Trump has a zero percent chance of ever being the president of the United States again,”  Duncan argued. “It will continue to become more and more obvious to folks across the country that this is an unwinnable strategy, this divisive rancor, this divisive tone that alienates is not a winnable strategy.”

Duncan predicted that “there’s not going to be this overwhelming groundswell for election fraud and conspiracy theories and divisive rancor. Republicans are going to wake up across this country and just simply want to win. And I think GOP 2.0 can do that. What we’re seeing is a short term sugar high in Donald Trump. And I guarantee you beyond a shadow of doubt that Trump fever is going to break.”